I will be playing in the Seminole Pro Tour 10 Ball Event at California Billiards on April 29. Since I don’t play very much 10 Ball, I figured it would be a good idea to practice the game. Last night at the CBC I practiced my 10 Ball break to see if I could run a rack. Well, I’m happy to report that miracles do happen. On my very first break, I pocketed two balls, ran three balls, and then was able to make a fairly routine 5-10 combination shot for a run out. On my second break, I got lucky again, made one ball, and was able to run the whole table out. From that point on, it was all downhill. I stopped the exercise after 12 racks, so my final tally was 2 break and runs in 12 attempts. Not too bad for me.
I was feeling pretty good about my run out percentage, so I began wondering…suppose I get lucky and draw Efren Reyes in the first round of the tournament. What are the chances that I could beat him? On any given day, it’s possible that one player can get really hot and run some tables. If the other player is really cold, it could be a rout. Ok, let’s be honest – anyone who thinks they can actually beat Efren in a race to 9 format is either insane or at best delusional, but the mental exercise can still be fun. What would it take for me to be able to beat Efren? I decided to do a little analysis to figure out the answer. Here are my assumptions:
- Efren is a better shot maker than me. (No, really?!)
- Efren is the better safety player than me. (Duh!!)
- Efren’s lag shot and break are better than mine.
- Every component of Efren’s game is much better than mine.
- I completed 2 break and runs in a row last night (incidentally, my first in 10 Ball!)
- I have occasionally hit a perfect lag shot.
- I’m in trouble!
Well, so far, it’s not looking very good…but let’s not give up hope yet. As Jim Carrey’s character Lloyd said in the movie, Dumb and Dumber, “…there’s a chance!” If you’re one of the five people on this planet who are not familiar with this quote, you must see the video below:
Efren is a very tough opponent because he’s not going to miss very many shots, and if he can’t make a shot, he’s going to play a hellacious safe and get ball in hand. The way I figure it, the only way I can beat Efren is to never allow him to get to the table. How could I do that? First of all, I would have to win the lag. Secondly, I could never let him get to the table. What are the chances I can do that? Let’s look at this situation from a probabilistic standpoint. If I could maintain an average run out rate of 16.66% (very unlikely), and could somehow win the lag (I figure maybe a 15% chance since I have home field advantage), here’s the chance of me running 9 straight racks and defeating Efren:
P(Michael>Efren) = (0.15)(.16666)^9 = 1.4884E-8
In layman’s terms, the chance of me beating Efren is about 0.00000149%. That’s a REALLY small number. To help you understand just how small that number is, let’s compare it to the probability of some real world phenomena.
- P(Struck by lightning this year) = 1.736E-7 = 0.00001736%
- P(Dating a Supermodel) = 1.136E-5 = 0.00114%
- P(Spotting a UFO today) = 3.333E-7 = .0000333%
Turns out, it’s more likely that I’ll date a Supermodel, spot a UFO, and get struck by lightning before I beat Efren. Hummm…the odds are not that good, but hey, I’ve still got a chance!!!!
Angle of Reflection 
well, you can always try to three-foul him…
3 foul Efren? Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!!! That’s a good one! 😉
hey, if you’re gonna go, go big!
muahahahahahaha
If you play your absolutely best game, including hard to counter kicks and safeties when required, get a a few rolls go your way, and Efren has a few misses because he doesn’t take your game too seriously versus his own, you could pull it off. So yeah, you have a chance. And you’ll need a mental flak jacket to resist those negative thoughts you might have going into the match and after you miss a few in the actual set and Efren starts plowing balls in one after the other.
And if you lose, it’ll be a great experience and let you know how far you still have to travel to truly become a working professional.
If I got the chance to play him, and if all the planets aligned just right, it would be possible…but not probable. However, I would certainly put on my game face and give it my absolute best effort. You are correct…regardless of the outcome, it would be a great experience and show me just how much further I have to go. Thanks Michael for your comments.
One of Effren’s (if not the only) weakness(es) is his break. It’s well known that his 9-ball break is not that great, compared to the other top 9b players out there. So, *if* you really put in some serious time working on small adjustments to your break, you *could* out-break him. As for shot making and safety play, well, you’ll need another 30 years to best him in that arena, sorry. hahaha
10-ball isn’t nearly the run-out game that 9-ball is. Also – depending on the rules being enforced, you can enforce 2-way shots (unless they use the SBE rules wherein if you miss and hook the opponent, you get the shot back). I’d suggest working on 2 things between now and then: your break (which we talked about in a later post) and safety play/speed control. IMO, those are the 2 biggest aspects of 10-ball. Be prepared to play a lot of safeties off the 1 ball, judging by the DCC and SBE (not to mention the Earl/Shane match) it’s pretty rare to have a *good* shot at the 1 after the break; but making sure you can see it is very important.
Just a point of order about Efren’s break. It is well know that he does not have a huge power break, how ever Francisco Bustamante ” one of the top pro breakers in the game” credits Efren with consistently making balls on the break, and having a shot. Just because he doesn’t break as hard as other top players, doesn’t mean his break is weak, or not as effective as other players. It’s just a different style. He does not string rack after rack together because he can’t make balls on the break and get shape.