On April 29, 2011, several of the top pool players in the world will come together in Mountain View, California for the $12,000 added first stop of the Seminole Pro Tour. Yours truly will be competing in…oh, wait, let’s correct that…will be playing in the 10 ball event. Did I earn my way into the tournament? Heck no. I just paid the entry fee. For a paltry $115, I have the opportunity to step up to the table and play with the best of the best in a three day double elimination race to nine 10 ball event. There will be two tables live streaming during the tournament…a tournament table and an action table. But wait, there’s more! Starting April 27, there’s a three day one pocket tournament that will be drawing the top one pocket players in the world!!! Of course, I’ll be taking the week off from work to sit at the CBC and absorb the ambiance.
“So, you say it’s going to be a big tournament, huh? Who’s coming?” Good question! I spoke to some of the folks over at California Billiards to find out which players have called in to register. As of today, here’s a partial list of players who have confirmed they will play:
1. Earl Strickland
2. Efren Reyes
3. Francisco Bustamante
4. Corey Deuel
5. Scott Frost
6. Jeanette Lee
7. Alex Pagulayan
8. Bernard “Pots and Pans” Rogoff
9. Gabe Owen
I will be playing in the Seminole Pro Tour 10 Ball Event at California Billiards on April 29. Since I don’t play very much 10 Ball, I figured it would be a good idea to practice the game. Last night at the CBC I practiced my 10 Ball break to see if I could run a rack. Well, I’m happy to report that miracles do happen. On my very first break, I pocketed two balls, ran three balls, and then was able to make a fairly routine 5-10 combination shot for a run out. On my second break, I got lucky again, made one ball, and was able to run the whole table out. From that point on, it was all downhill. I stopped the exercise after 12 racks, so my final tally was 2 break and runs in 12 attempts. Not too bad for me.
I was feeling pretty good about my run out percentage, so I began wondering…suppose I get lucky and draw Efren Reyes in the first round of the tournament. What are the chances that I could beat him? On any given day, it’s possible that one player can get really hot and run some tables. If the other player is really cold, it could be a rout. Ok, let’s be honest – anyone who thinks they can actually beat Efren in a race to 9 format is either insane or at best delusional, but the mental exercise can still be fun. What would it take for me to be able to beat Efren? I decided to do a little analysis to figure out the answer. Here are my assumptions:
Efren is a better shot maker than me. (No, really?!)
Efren is the better safety player than me. (Duh!!)
Efren’s lag shot and break are better than mine.
Every component of Efren’s game is much better than mine.
I completed 2 break and runs in a row last night (incidentally, my first in 10 Ball!)
I have occasionally hit a perfect lag shot.
I’m in trouble!
Well, so far, it’s not looking very good…but let’s not give up hope yet. As Jim Carrey’s character Lloyd said in the movie, Dumb and Dumber, “…there’s a chance!” If you’re one of the five people on this planet who are not familiar with this quote, you must see the video below:
Efren is a very tough opponent because he’s not going to miss very many shots, and if he can’t make a shot, he’s going to play a hellacious safe and get ball in hand. The way I figure it, the only way I can beat Efren is to never allow him to get to the table. How could I do that? First of all, I would have to win the lag. Secondly, I could never let him get to the table. What are the chances I can do that? Let’s look at this situation from a probabilistic standpoint. If I could maintain an average run out rate of 16.66% (very unlikely), and could somehow win the lag (I figure maybe a 15% chance since I have home field advantage), here’s the chance of me running 9 straight racks and defeating Efren:
P(Michael>Efren) = (0.15)(.16666)^9 = 1.4884E-8
In layman’s terms, the chance of me beating Efren is about 0.00000149%. That’s a REALLY small number. To help you understand just how small that number is, let’s compare it to the probability of some real world phenomena.
P(Struck by lightning this year) = 1.736E-7 = 0.00001736%
P(Dating a Supermodel) = 1.136E-5 = 0.00114%
P(Spotting a UFO today) = 3.333E-7 = .0000333%
Turns out, it’s more likely that I’ll date a Supermodel, spot a UFO, and get struck by lightning before I beat Efren. Hummm…the odds are not that good, but hey, I’ve still got a chance!!!!
On April 29, 2011, several of the top pool players in the world will come together in Mountain View, California for the $12,000 added first stop of the Seminole Pro Tour. Yours truly will be competing in…oh, wait, let’s correct that…will be playing in the 10 ball event. Did I earn my way into the tournament? Heck no. I just paid the entry fee. For a paltry $115, I have the opportunity to step up to the table and play with the best of the best in a three day double elimination race to nine 10 ball event. There will be two tables live streaming during the tournament…a tournament table and an action table. But wait, there’s more! Starting April 27, there’s a three day one pocket tournament that will be drawing the top one pocket players in the world!!! Of course, I’ll be taking the week off from work to sit at the CBC and absorb the ambiance.
Angle of Reflection 